Leading Indicators
While each wine must be valued independently, I have formulated a list of twenty wines that can point out which direction the auction market is trending. These twenty wines lead the market, in that they are iconic wines, and a significant move in their price will signal to collectors that the market is changing. These appear in this table as « Leading Indicators »
Sometimes, however, the leading indicators don’t tell the whole story. Accordingly, I have put together a second list that I call « Coincident Indicators ». These are wines whose prices will follow those of the leading indicators, and can be used to either confirm or temper an impression created by the former list. These are wines that are less iconic but still widely collected. Using these two lists together it is possible to form an initial impression of the direction the market is heading. Is this a perfect list? Far from it. No list can be. I am not suggesting, however, that we average all of the numbers (or even subsets of them) to get an “index” number, which would give a specious idea of the market at best.
| Leading Indicators: Average Sale Prices with Premium for Iconic Wines | ||||||||||
| Vintage | Wine | Producer | YTD | 2015 | 2011 | 2006 | Δ LY | Δ 5 YR | Δ 10 YR | |
| 1996 | Brut Vintage Clos du Mesnil | Champagne Krug | $1,198.00 | $1,436.00 | $1,154.00 | -16.6% | 3.8% | |||
| 1990 | 1er GC Saint-Emilion | Cheval Blanc | $832.00 | $907.00 | $1,129.00 | $964.00 | -8.3% | -26.3% | -13.7% | |
| 1989 | Pessac-Leognan | Haut Brion | $1,636.00 | $1,365.00 | $1,520.00 | $949.00 | 19.9% | 7.6% | 72.4% | |
| 1982 | Pauillac | Lafite | $2,634.00 | $2,297.00 | $4,411.00 | $1,046.00 | 14.7% | -40.3% | 151.8% | |
| 1986 | Pauillac | Mouton | $799.00 | $763.00 | $1,015.00 | $614.00 | 4.7% | -21.3% | 30.1% | |
| 2000 | Pomerol | Petrus | $3,932.00 | $3,785.00 | $4,034.00 | $2,804.00 | 3.9% | -2.5% | 40.2% | |
| 1990 | Romanee Conti | DRC | $16,528.00 | $16,499.00 | $15,840.00 | $9,932.00 | 0.2% | 4.3% | 66.4% | |
| 1999 | La Tache | DRC | $4,168.00 | $3,900.00 | $3,912.00 | $1,606.00 | 6.9% | 6.5% | 159.5% | |
| 1993 | Musigny | Domaine Leroy | $5,308.00 | $4,391.00 | $3,531.00 | $1,778.00 | 20.9% | 50.3% | 198.5% | |
| 2010 | La Romanee | Liger Belair | $2,602.00 | $2,960.00 | -12.1% | |||||
| 1990 | Chambertin | Rousseau | $2,403.00 | $2,554.00 | $1,545.00 | $695.00 | -5.9% | 55.5% | 245.8% | |
| 1996 | Corton Charlemagne | Coche Dury | $3,189.00 | $3,384.00 | $3,372.00 | $1,804.00 | -5.8% | -5.4% | 76.8% | |
| 2005 | Montrachet | DRC | $3,772.00 | $4,489.00 | $4,472.00 | -16.0% | -15.7% | |||
| 1999 | Cote Rotie La Mouline | Guigal | $675.00 | $688.00 | $689.00 | $500.00 | -1.9% | -2.0% | 35.0% | |
| 1961 | Hermitage La Chapelle | Jaboulet | $9,800.00 | $12,590.00 | $13,808.00 | $5,861.00 | -22.2% | -29.0% | 67.2% | |
| 1990 | Chateauneuf-du-Pape | Rayas | $1,398.00 | $1,360.00 | $1,256.00 | $1,110.00 | 2.8% | 11.3% | 25.9% | |
| 2007 | IGT Toscana Masseto | Ornellaia | $753.00 | $778.00 | $606.00 | -3.2% | 24.3% | |||
| 1997 | Napa Cabernet Blend | Screaming Eagle | $3,922.00 | $3,734.00 | $3,399.00 | $2,352.00 | 5.0% | 15.4% | 66.8% | |
| 2001 | South Australia Shiraz Blend Grange | Penfold’s | $346.00 | $348.00 | $296.00 | -0.6% | 16.9% | |||
| 1963 | Vintage Port Nacional | Quinta do Noval | $3,412.00 | $2,904.00 | $2,075.00 | $2,552.00 | 17.5% | 64.4% | 33.7% | |
| Coincident Indicators: Average Sale Prices with Premium | ||||||||||
| Vintage | Wine | Producer | YTD | 2015 | 2011 | 2006 | Δ LY | Δ 5 YR | Δ 10 YR | |
| 1996 | Brut Vintage | Champagne Krug | $373.00 | $353.00 | $339.00 | 5.7% | 10.0% | |||
| 1990 | Brut Vintage | Dom Perignon | $302.00 | $277.00 | $282.00 | $213.00 | 9.0% | 7.1% | 41.8% | |
| 1989 | Pauillac | Lynch Bages | $378.00 | $318.00 | $276.00 | $198.00 | 18.9% | 37.0% | 90.9% | |
| 1996 | Saint Julien | Leoville Las Cases | $244.00 | $248.00 | $293.00 | $218.00 | -1.6% | -16.7% | 11.9% | |
| 2005 | Gevrey Chambertin Clos Saint-Jacques VV | Fourrier | $534.00 | $599.00 | $364.00 | -10.9% | 46.7% | |||
| 2009 | Vosne Romanee Aux Malconsorts | Sylvain Cathiard | $445.00 | $446.00 | -0.2% | |||||
| 1998 | Chateauneuf-du-Pape VV | Domaine de Marcoux | $230.00 | $235.00 | $297.00 | $333.00 | -2.1% | -22.6% | -30.9% | |
| 1990 | Barolo Monfortino | Giacomo Conterno | $1,115.00 | $1,168.00 | $676.00 | $542.00 | -4.5% | 64.9% | 105.7% | |
| 1994 | Napa Valley Cabernet Blend | Dominus | $282.00 | $275.00 | $268.00 | $211.00 | 2.5% | 5.2% | 33.6% | |
| 1977 | Vintage Port | Taylor’s | $115.00 | $104.00 | $110.00 | $112.00 | 10.6% | 4.5% | 2.7% | |